Delhi votes

As my national capital votes today, I am proud of the increased interaction and participation all over, especially in the social media. Arvind's team put forth a spirited fight, Bedi and the BJP team weren't far behind and finally moved out of Modi's image. Congress' Ajay proved he can face a losing battle. 

This vote is not for a party, not for an ideology and definitely not the result of a glamorous campaign. This vote is for progress, for development and for the democracy. This vote is not for your or me, this vote is for our children, our future. This vote is not for us to throw away, this vote is for our children to preserve. Hope Delhi votes well.

The winners I should say are the people of Delhi, the Delhi voter whom everyone is trying to win over with schemes and the offers. Hope he chooses his government well and hope they live up to their promises.

The Aurangzeb factor: 5 lessons from Modi-Advani tussle

R Jagannathan has come out with a beautiful article.

Lal Krishna Advani’s decision to withdraw his resignation from three party posts yesterday may have ended the crisis in the BJP over the elevation of Narendra Modi as campaign committee chief, but rest assured, the core issue hasn’t gone away.

The core issue is this: how should parties prepare for an orderly transition in leadership? Should they do it the modern equivalent of the Aurangzeb way, by a show of force or internal intrigue, or should they have a proper process?

This is a problem only for the BJP and the Communists, since they do not believe in family rule.

Gujarat CM Narendra Modi and veteran leader LK Advani

In the Congress and almost all regional parties, primogeniture rules. Succession is what the family patriarch (or matriarch in the Congress right now) decides. Aurangzebs occasionally emerge from the woodwork when the incumbent son/daughter proves unworthy or unable to handle power (as evident in the MNS challenge to the Shiv Sena, or the N Chandrababu Naidu revolt against NTR, or the forthcoming DMK sibling war – between MK Stalin and MK Azhagiri).

The problem remains for the BJP and the Communists, for they are more cadre-based.
Without a proper process to select a leader, Modi had to establish his authority partly through the Aurangzeb route – as Jaithirth Rao eloquently argues in an article in The Economic Times – by a show of muscle and machismo using party workers. This has its downside: the loser will have no stake in being graceful in defeat, or in helping the new leader.

Says Rao: “If the BJP had held primary elections, then the loser would have had to go along, one way or the other. When faced with the inevitable, people usually opt for graceful behaviour. When the process is opaque, when Rajnath Singh announces that they have made a consensus decision, even as the parties to the consensus conspicuously stay away, we get into messy and unseemly dramas.”
So, the first lesson parties like the BJP have to learn is how to manage succession – and a clear system of inner party elections for every major leadership role is key. Parties do have election systems, but the old feudal reality ensures that only “consensus” candidates emerge on top through a process of opaque, inner party backdoor compromises.

There are other lessons the BJP and other parties need to learn from the Advani-Modi battle of nerves and backroom manoeuvre.

The second lesson is that parties must have an in-built retirement age for leaders. This need not be 60 or 65, but surely 75 is not a bad outer limit? This does not mean oldies like Advani and Manmohan Singh do not have a place in politics – they do, and they can mentor people and generate ideas for growth – but they should not play a direct leadership role. Not in a young nation such as India.
Thirdly, parties which have strong cadres must have clear rules of conduct between party organisation and government, between social organisations and political fronts. In the BJP’s case, it is fine if the RSS contributes men and material to help the party succeed, but if the Sangh tries to dictate every policy move of the party the latter cannot succeed. The same applies to the Congress, which failed in UPA-2 precisely because the party and government were not in sync. It also applies to the CPMs of the world: the party ruined Jyoti Basu’s chances of becoming the first Communist PM of the country in 1996. Parties can have their basic ideologies, but achieving anything needs compromises in government.

The fourth lesson to learn is the importance of projecting a leader. Parties such as the BJP and CPM stress collective leadership – and, as a principle, it is not wrong – but in the television age, parties must have attractive leaders to articulate a vision. A collective leadership and think-tank can emerge once a leader is chosen. Voters relate to people and not just ideology. Atal Behari Vajpayee did not have any particular ideology, but his inherent charm worked for him and helped him blunt the edges one could see in his more scrappy colleagues. The regional parties do not have this problem because they are largely dynastic like the Congress. Regional parties are created largely by charismatic leaders, and as long as the family’s clout remains, there is no need for further projection – whether it is a Naveen Patnaik in Orissa or a Mulayam Singh or Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh.

Those who argue that projecting a leader may polarise rather than unify voters (mostly this is done with reference to Modi) are both right and wrong. The purpose of projecting a leader is to convey direction – so it could polarise at times. (It isn’t as if Sonia Gandhi does not polarise – especially with her Italian origins.)

Projecting leaders can work, and it can fail. Let’s also note that the projection of Advani in 2009 did not work for the BJP. But this does not mean that projecting no leader is better. Parties have to take this gamble based on who they think is their best bet. If Modi is given charge and he fails, it is game over for him. The party can then pick up the pieces and take on a different leader the next time. Not selecting a leader is not an option anymore.

The last point is that elected leaders must have the right to their own teams. Once you accept the logic that elections are increasingly getting presidential in India, you cannot circumscribe the leader by inflicting all kinds of conditions to his power. This is why Advani’s efforts to create a parallel election committee for the assembly elections was worth junking.


The issue is not about Advani or Modi. It is about having a transparent process to manage leadership transitions.

Party is over

Harsha sent me this...

One day a goat with her small child went into forest for food. Unfortunately they forget their way back to home and struck in the forest at the night. A Big lion came and saw the goat and her child . The goat took her child nearer to her and thought that lion will definitely eat both of them. Lion came nearer to them and put his hands on the child and pampered her and told that "No fear My Dear. I don't have any sisters so now onwards you are my sister and I am your brother". And he gave chocolates , biscuits to the child and ask goat to come to his room with his husband for lunch and also ask her to celebrate raksha bandhan with him and gave her his visiting card. He promised the goat that "tell me if any one attack you or threaten you”. And he left the place.

Finally the goat got surprised and told her child.... "I think Elections are coming."

Well now the party is over and Lion is hungry.

Dr. Manmohan Singh & Rahul Gandhi

Well its clear that Congress is sweeping the election. Its Dr. Manmohan Singh's wave this time. And partly a result for what he has done. On a longer turn Rahul Gandhi's path is clearly etched. I think he would replace Dr. Singh in a few years. The credit goes to Dr. Singh, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and other leaders. A reaping time for a well planned and chartered path. Lets wait till the official results are out. But keep watching Rahul.

Few things that will happen:

• Stock market will rise(400-900 points) on Monday
  
• Better FDIs, jobs, etc.
• Stable government, confident policies
• Women's Reservation Bill will be passed (hope so)

Change for good

Meera Sanyal (banker), Capt Gopinath and Sarath are to be watched keenly in this election. If young, vibrant and democratic India realises the genuine need for self-less leaders to be chosen, they all should win. But, for the past two decades or more, we have been suffering with dirty coalition politics resulting in uncertainty and inconsistency; which is hampering parliamentary governance being commercialised.

In the big fight between three or four major political fronts, some times ideologies are also changing fast. Leftists support a govt for four and half years and leave only to be substituted by Samajwadi duo of Mulayam and Amar Singh; which again is short lived. Lalu, Paswan, Ambumani, Sharad Pawar, et al are all sitting on the fence. Reforms, Recession, Development, Globalisation, GDP, Income, Employment, Exports, Exchange rates, Stock Market fluctuations, etc are neglected in vote bank politics focusing corruption, caste, regionalism, nepotism, factionalism, power, money and what not?

The typical middle class (educated/employed) would helplessly watch elections after elections; let us hope Sarath, Meera and Gopinath would change the direction in this election and show to the world what Indian Democracy is all about!

Courtesy: Progressive Banker

Lead India

A bit busy with my dissertation report and hence no post for today. Found this wonderful ad from TOI.

Decipher India

Socio-cultural settings play a very important role in influencingpurchase. Its this setting that drives and reinforces human identities. Identities for people as people and as consumers. Socio-cultural environments throw up reference groups thatinfluence. These groups encircle the consumer and weigh him with their persuasive powers. The further away an entity is in the encirclement, the lesser its impact is. For example, the closest to the consumer is his family. What follows is friendship groups, then social class, subcultures and the end's rounded up by culture. What's interesting to note in this set-up is, sub-cultural influences are stronger than cultural ones. That is, identities are driven more by a sub-culture than culture. This is true in the consumer sense as much as it is to voting patterns. That is, consumers engage in purchases that match, propagate and reinforce a sub-cultural identity.

--- Buyer Behaviour

Please Pappu... Vote na?

Well are you voting this time? I was watching the news the other day and found out you no longer need to have a voter ID to vote. There are more than 200 different id proofs that can be used to vote. With India going young the vote of the youth gains more importance than ever. Its for us to choose what kind of government we want. Do it now rather than repenting later. The power to Vote defines democracy and is what makes you and me the rulers of this Nation. So will you be a Pappu and stay home or will you vote?

Noise

Being at home has its own advantages. You got someone who ensures you eat, sleep and wake up at the right time. I also had the chance to watch TV and local channels. I hate to say this but all over only one topic was prominent: Elections.

More than concentrating on how to get your votes and tell voters why should some one vote for your party each of these parties in AP are eagerly trying to prove others wrong. Most of the ads were directed to prove how stupid were the offers of the other party and how their party would should and must be the best choice. Congress party had ads targeting at TDP and ridiculing how stupid was the free color TV offer and money distribution schemes? TDP's ads were aimed at proving how Congress encouraged corruption? and couldn't do what could have been done? Chiranjeevi's PRP was aimed at his charisma and asking people to give him a chance! TRS was playing the Telangana song again.

Among all this clutter and clever subtle double entendre filled jabs at each other they forgot the basic rule of communication. Its not about you stupid. Its about me and my vote! What would I get if I vote for you? What can you do for me if I choose to select you as a public servant. You may spend crores of rupees but I would vote only for someone who would be eligible and not because you had a great ad and promotional campaign on TV or Internet. You should have been here long time ago.. for the last 5 years.

Target touch 10 crore

BJP managers claim that with close to half the voting population connected by mobiles, this campaign is now a must. They agreed that the party was looking forward to a sustained effort by Sangh organisations to reach and motive both the faithful and sympathisers. Party sources said this would be accompanied by a massive SMS campaign which hopes to ultimately reach 10 crore voters.

The web-bases campaign has modest targets but is perhaps the most interesting part of the party's poll efforts. It begins by hoping to enroll a lakh of volunteers online in addition to some 40,000 who have signed up. Those who sign up will be asked to organize small neighborhood or drawing room discussions on politics and will be provided videos and presentations by the BJP.

The attempt to reach voters who usually do not turn up at polling booths is driven by an estimate that many of them might share BJP’s vision for a strong Centre and a "nationalist" approach to security that includes "hard" views on anti-terror laws and illegal infiltration. These groups could motivate people to shed both their cynicism and lethargy to actually go to the polling stations.The BJP's print campaign will focus on spelling out its programme which is expected to be replete with feel-good offers like targeted schemes for girl children, cheap foodgrain, lower farm loan rates and several sops for the urban vote.

Voting n tribals

PV Krishna Rao in Indian Express: Tribal’s are perceived to be ‘uncivilized.’ Many ‘educated’ look down upon them with utter disdain, citing their ‘unhygienic’ life in ‘inhospitable’ jungles. If you are one of the so-called ‘educated’ class, think again. For one thing, you are too lazy to enroll yourselves in the electoral rolls. Even if you do have the voter card, you are too lazy to take the trouble to vote, preferring to stay at home (election day is a holiday) and shaking your head at the state-of-affairs.

Listen to Kattula Ramireddy, a resident of Chilakamamidi village in Rampachodavaram Agency area, who is here for the weekly shandy to buy provisions: “We have to walk three km to reach the polling station at Butchiguda. But we don’t mind at all. Why should we miss the opportunity of voting?” He fails to understand why you do not vote! “All the voters in our village set out early in the day and reach the polling station.

We go as a group and cast our votes,” he says. Now, don’t be a cynic and say, they are “following their local neta.” Read on. Reading is a good habit. Have you ever thought, leave alone feel, that you are honored to vote? “We feel a sense of loss if our names are missing in the rolls. We take pride in voting. Many of us believe we are dead if we do not find our names in the electoral rolls,” explains Ramireddy. It’s that important to them.

Another tribal Kattula Suggureddy of Nuripudi village chips in: “The nearest polling station to our village is in Sunnampadu, six km away.” He doesn’t mind walking that extra mile. “That is what we do everyday anyway,” he laughs. Most of the tribal’s have the same problem as the authorities find it difficult to take polling stations closer to their habitations because of logistical problems. How about the aged? The youth take the responsibility of carrying the aged on their shoulders.

It takes time for them to cover the distance. “We carry gruel in cans and stop for a while for lunch somewhere in the jungles,” says Bhumireddy of Gurumamidi village in Y Ramavaram mandal. Aren’t they afraid of the Maoists? You and I stay put at the slightest hint of a protest somewhere on the route. Bhumireddy says, “they give their own explanation for poll boycott. But we believe that since we are living in this country, it is our responsibility to vote.” Do you?

Indian Politics

Politics in India is still substantially driven by identities of caste, subcaste, subcommunity within that. Elections are like chess games, with each major party watching whom the others are nominating in each constituency like hawks and then working to break the numbers: getting relatives from the opposition candidate’s family to stand, incentivizing some independent candidates to step up, buying off others who could swing key blocks. With each move, the calculated aim is to splinter the electoral math and nudge the needle by the barest minimum margin for victory.

Cash and crime are increasing determinants of success. Aspiring candidates need to bring their own kitty; only the rare honest worker can expect to win with little money. Elections are times of massive cash transfers across the chain, with middlemen lopping off their share of the grease that is lubricating our democratic machinery. The same is happening with criminals—those who can use strong-arm means to sway the vote.

Seat by seat, block by block, this same process is repeated: a complex, multi-dimensional jigsaw puzzle that changes with every passing day as the nomination deadlines close in. Senior politicians’ homes and offices are besieged by potential candidates demanding “tickets”, supporters are rallied from constituencies, mobiles buzz continuously.

After the Mumbai attacks, we saw many states going to the polls. I have seen some of the post-poll interactions among senior politicians, both winners and losers. One was with a political scion. This young parliamentarian told me disparagingly, “Your columns with their elegant ideas, all the media talk about a new wave of development and governance—all romantic nonsense. We are still working the same political equations on the same age-old formulae. I can show you one district where I spent months bringing development to the areas and we won just one seat. And another district where we played the most cynical form of electoral politics and we won a majority of the seats.”

--- Mobius Strip

BJP is online!

Its almost 100 days more before we know when India will go to polls and BJP has already started to campaign and promise. MJ explains how this is happening online. Now this is an ad by Google Adwords that keeps cropping up when I browse. BJP has launched a website with L K Advani's speech in Hindi and English urging the people for votes. 

Though I think Indians are not yet so much in to changing their voting preferences on whom they are going to vote for, i think this is a cool move as it is so prominent and innovative. I think this is the first time I am seeing a Google Adwords ad for a political party. Considering the contribution of Internet and the online population and traffic in Obama's election this might work out as a positive note for the BJP. The logo is redesigned as well to suit the tastes of the modern young population. 

Now we learn in strategy that the change in logo should be in sync with the change in internal policies, processes, methods you do business in and how you put together your product/service offering. Logo is fine, now let me see what changes you have got and tell me why should I vote for you? Smart work Advaniji and Party.